Avid Editor's Insights

Faulty CIA ‘Computer Models’ Failed to Predict Egypt Uprising; Let’s Take the ‘Scien ce’ Out of ‘Political Science’

Posted by avideditor on February 12, 2011

DICTATOR OBAMA APPOINTED THIS FOOL DIRECTOR CLAPPER Is O’reilly pro Jihadi? He is no Allen West IMHO Bill O’Reilly Morphing Into Barbara Walters Bill O’reilly Morphing into Helen Tomas The EDL are great video redo Beck Abridged: Jihadis in their own words. Muslim Brotherhood edition Obama Contrasted with Allen West State of the Union SOTU Is Obama being pro Jihadi in the State of the Union 2011? Bill Maher on Real Time is a hypocrite attacks Palin, Beck, and Tea Party Liberals Blood Libel Smear

From Faulty CIA ‘Computer Models’ Failed to Predict Egypt Uprising; Let’s Take the ‘Science’ Out of ‘Political Science’Wall Street used complex computer algorithms that were supposed to finely tune the functioning of financial markets. Remember how all of that leveraging was okay, because the big financial houses had all those mathematical formulas working for them? Well, that didn’t work out so well.

And now as Wired points out, algorithms didn’t do any better for the Pentagon in predicting the outbreak of unrest in Egypt. The Pentagon has spent more than $125 million on computer models that are suposed to forecast political unrest. Didn’t work. ”All of our models are bad, some are less bad than others,” Wired quotes Mark Abdollahian, who has “built dozens of predictive models for government agencies,” as saying. Bravo to Mr. Abdollahian for his honesty.

Wired notes that some models are more successful than others. Scholar Bruce Bueno de Mesquita has established a forecasting model that predicted Iranian leader Ayatollah Khomeini’s successor five years ahead of time. But count me as deeply suspicious of any effort to “quantify” human conduct. Human beings are unpredictable, fickle and react differently in the same circumstances. I’ve never liked the term “political science.” Politics is not a science. It’s more an amalgamation of history, philosophy, psychology, demographics, economics, morality and geography. How do you quantify that? The hard sciences, such as math, will never be able to accurately predict human decision-making. They are simply one tool of many.

If we are staking our future intelligence efforts on computer models, we are in serious trouble. Human intelligence is still key. We are not going to be able to “tech” our way into a better intelligence system. At the end of the day its about human judgment. We need analysts who understand culture, language, and history, who also “think” like the other guy.

One Response to “Faulty CIA ‘Computer Models’ Failed to Predict Egypt Uprising; Let’s Take the ‘Scien ce’ Out of ‘Political Science’”

  1. 1389AD said

    It figures. The US military was trying to predict civil unrest in foreign countries, while at the same time, and unbeknownst to the Pentagon, the Obama Administration and its union-thug and other leftist minions were busy fomenting civil unrest in the very same locales.

    EPIC FAIL.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

 
%d bloggers like this: